Election Analysis: September 2008

Being a full time investigator of the election, it gets tiring and sickening to hear about the same issue for a prolonged period. Gallup is reporting McCain at a 4 point lead over Obama. The overall consensus of the reporting agencies is either putting McCain ahead of Obama or in a “dead heat” battle. Some may argue that these agencies are wrong because they only sample a few thousand people, but if you knew anything about math or statistics, then you would know it SHOULD be accurate. As long as the samples are completely random. Which I doubt, considering a significant population of the United States is hard to contact. So, here is some other data that suggests that Barack Obama still has the edge.

Alexa, the traffic measuring organization, shows there is a significant amount of more interest in the Obama site, than the McCain site. While this is no testament to claim the winner of the November elections, it shows Obama is attracting more visitors. While John McCain has seen more interest in his website since about mid-August, there has been a proportional increase at the Barack Obama website.

Youtube is in agreement with Alexa.com too. Obama has over 84,000 subscribers and 16 million channel views. McCain on the other hand has 19,000 subscribers and is almost at 1.4 million channel views. In fact, McCain mocks Obama’s web popularity (as he has in the past) and tries to establish the message that Obama thinks of himself as a deity (or god).

The same story repeats with Facebook and MySpace. On MySpace, Obama has about 500,000 friends and McCain has about 90,000 friends. On Facebook, Obama has about 1.7 million supporters and McCain has nearly 330,000 supporters. Interestingly enough, Palin has about 200,000 supporters. Not less than a month ago, McCain actually had around half the support he has now. So I am going to assume that a large portion of his supporters are there for Palin. We have seen a similar response to his rallies after adding Sarah Palin to the ticket.

This is an online trend and it should not be taken lightly. This data is not random, but it shows there is an under represented population in the polls. Be it the young, tech savvy, or bi-sexual; the polls are off, but to what degree, we will never know.

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